My tenth Key to an “A” is anticipation. In speaking to my leadership class. Schneider National’s Chris Lofgren mentioned the need for a leader to see around corners. Thinking about the future and what changes and opportunities might be available is a “front burner” requirement for leaders. In general, leaders don’t like surprises. They must anticipate.
An important aspect of anticipation for a leader is visioning, looking ahead. Then, what the leader anticipates is converted into a mental picture of what the future will look like for the organization. Walmart’s Judith McKenna reminded students they need to look farther than one step ahead, they should anticipate “the second bounce of the ball. What is the result of the result?” Every action causes a reaction. What’ll be the reaction to a leader’s action? Anticipate!
Anticipating “the second bounce of the ball” can limit unintended consequences accompanying decisions. Indeed, because unintended consequences occur so frequently, the phenomenon led to the Law of Unintended Consequences. A highly visible example is provided by a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) decision. Guidelines regarding athletic eligibility of athletes who transfer to another university were changed dramatically. The motivation for the rule change was very logical: a freshman football player arrives at a university and realizes it’s not a good fit. The old rule required the player to sit out a year after transferring. The rule was changed to allow a football player who hadn’t played in more than four games to be eligible to play for another school the following year.[i]
The unintended consequence? The guideline didn’t limit transfers to freshmen. It didn’t take long after the student-transfer genie left the bottle for the guideline to be expanded to allow any student athlete to transfer one time without penalty. The transfer portal produced fundamental changes in recruiting and retention.
In parallel with the transfer portal along came the NIL (name, identity, and likeness) movement.[ii] On June 21, 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court jerked the security blanket out from under collegiate athletic administrators, ruling the NCAA could not limit the level of educationally-related financial support universities provide student athletes. It, too, has had unintended consequences.
Based on my 11 years as chancellor of a university in the Southeastern Conference, I am well aware of the likelihood of a plethora of unintended consequences associated with the movement to pay student athletes. Unfortunately, too many want to apply Occam’s Razor[iii] and obtain a simple solution to the problem. They don’t understand, when it comes to answers, if the answer is easy to obtain and/or easy to implement, it’s probably wrong.
The payment of student athletes isn’t a simple issue, it’s complex. The issue reminds me of a quote variously attributed to H. L. Mencken[iv] and Oscar Wilde[v], “For every great problem, there is a simple solution—and it’s wrong.” It also reminds me of an engineering law: simple solutions to complex problems generally create more problems than they solve.
Anticipate “the second bounce of the ball.” In analyzing George Washington’s leadership, Richard Brookhiser notes, “Washington tended to look on the dark side of things, especially things that might lie in the future, and indeed the future often brought dark things to pass.” He adds, “His favorite philosopher, the Roman Seneca, assured him that nothing bad can happen to a wise man, because he already expects and accepts every possible loss. Fortune may take his ‘servants, possessions, dignity; assault his recalling of a trust, which he has received, with condition to deliver it up again upon demand?’ Such thoughts may give strength to the wise man, in his dealings between himself and fate. But leaders have responsibilities, to shareholders, troops, constituents. … a leader is obliged to prepare for bad contingencies.”[vi] Leaders must anticipate problems and take steps to avoid or solve them.
But there is more to anticipation than looking for opportunities presented by changes and having feelings of foreboding while preparing for future problems. There is also the looking forward to every day and what it brings. Leaders need to identify with Mark Antony, who said to Cleopatra, “To business that we love, we … go to it with delight.”[vii]
Milne’s Pooh Bear nailed it: “‘Well,’ said Pooh, ‘what I like best,’ and then he had to stop and think. Because although Eating Honey was a very good thing to do, there was a moment just before you began to eat it which was better than when you were, but he didn’t know what it was called.”[viii] Although Pooh didn’t know what to call it, we do, anticipation. Carpe diem, seize the day.
Each time General Marty Steele met with the leadership class he encouraged them to seize the day. Steele reminded them the future is not promised, their days are numbered, so they need to make the greatest difference while they can. To do so, they need to seize the day! Leaders need to look forward to each day and the opportunity they have to make a difference for followers and the organization.
Next: Keys to “A”s in Leadership–Part VIII (Awareness)
[i] See https://www.ncaa.org/student-athletes/current/want-transfer. Retrieved January 6, 2021.
[ii] See https://www.natlawreview.com/article/state-name-image-and-likeness-laws-july-1st-effective-dates-continue-to-grow. Retrieved January 6, 2021.
[iii] “Occam’s razor.” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary, Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Occam%27s%20razor. Accessed May 25, 2021.
[iv] See https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/h_l_mencken_129796.
[v] Robert K. Greenleaf, p. 349.
[vi] Richard Brookhiser, p. 37.
[vii] William Shakespeare, The Tragedy of Antony and Cleopatra, Act 4, Scene 4, Lines 26-27.
[viii] See https://www.azquotes.com/quote/605356?ref=anticipation. Retrieved September 8, 2020.
